Saturday, November 08, 2008

NYSE TICK, New Highs/Lows, and Testing Market Lows


Although we seemed to be headed toward a test of recent lows this past week, the cumulative adjusted NYSE TICK line has continued to show relative strength. Should we get that retest of lows, a number of indicators appear to be setting up non-confirmations. In addition to the TICK line, we're also seeing a very modest number of stocks hit fresh 20-day lows. On Friday, across the NYSE, NASDAQ, and ASE, we had 280 new 20-day highs, against 418 lows; Thursday had 297 new 20-day highs and 417 lows. Compare that to the 2564 new 20-day lows on October 24th and the 6561 new 20-day lows on October 10th. I will be watching these indicators closely to see if participation continues to wane on further weakness.
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4 comments:

Kevin said...

Hi Brett,

Seems like the stock market is giving us hints that it wants to go higher which is why I am waiting for some kind of technical trigger to get me long this market.
I also feel that there is too much risk shorting stocks given the current technical picture. Would you also agree that shroting the stock market here is a little risky?

catkevin said...

Brett,

Is this an example of inefficiency that you have previously mentioned? Lots of buying without managing to move price up? If so, the next move is down.


Kevin

Dhiren said...

what about the lack of volume on rallies?

Antonis Protopapas said...

I agree with catkevin, the fact that you are getting new highs in such a small time span can not by its self state that we should go up. Until now this is just a bear rally, it is logical that we have bottom fishing. The volume is dead. Oscillators have made spike lows and as you know they usually test or break below those levels again. PLUS the DJ or any other US index has broken its weekly trend on the downside,crashed and is now testing that regressive trend line. It will take extensive buying to break that trend on the upwards and extensive buying takes trust in the markets..