Saturday, September 29, 2007

Ideas on the Investment and Trading Radar

* Is Growth Sustainable? - I believe this NYT story touches on a few investment themes--China, natural resources, inflation--that may be increasingly important down the line.

* Gender and Happiness - Why are women less happy than men these days? I see this in many families in which the men are the traders.

* We're Not Wired to be Good Investors - Here's a nice summary of Jason Zweig's recent book. In a nutshell, the parts of our brain that respond to risk and reward are not those that engage in planning and judgment.

* Sovereign Wealth Boom - From the Middle East to China, countries are putting their reserves to work in the markets, far eclipsing the size of hedge funds. Could this be behind the strength of large caps and growth?

* Recession on the Way? - Markman offers a thoughtful analysis from multiple perspectives. Nice to read quality financial journalism.

* Commodities Boom - September was the largest gain for commodities in 32 years. And stocks? They had their largest September gain since 1998. Liquidity from the Fed and very bearish sentiment in August made for a bullish combination.

2 comments:

Will Rahal said...

Brett,
I have posted some interesting charts depicting a change in Consumption Behavior. I showed the correlation with GDP. Durable Goods as % to PCE hit a new(recession level) low.
In the last few years, the growth in Discretionary spending has been below the 38-yr average.

Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. said...

Hi Will,

Thanks for the insight; it does indeed look as though the US consumer is strapped. The question is whether the weak dollar will help compensate for that vis a vis international sales.

Brett